The Divided State: The Conviction of Dodik and the Perpetual Uncertainty of the Bosnia Herzegovina Republic's Unity
27/03/2025 - Written by Christian Naso
Introduction
On 26 February, the Sarajevo Court handed down a guilty verdict against Milorad Dodik, President of the Republika Srpska, for having passed laws suspending the rulings of the Constitutional Court and challenging the decisions of the UN High Representative. The ruling is inserted in a context of tension now consolidated in Bosnia and seems to underline the insoluble gap between the desires of integration with the West and the rapprochement with Russia.
The trial involving Milorad Dodik, president of the Serb Entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina, began in December 2023 when he was accused of not respecting the authority and decisions of the UN High Representative for Peace Christian Schmidt, Responsible for ensuring the stability of the area and monitoring compliance with the 1995 Dayton Agreements which put an end to the bloody Serb-Bosniac conflict.
Dodik assembled RS people immediately after the ruling and gave a speech that was just as controversial as his earlier ones. Among other things, he stressed the support of the Serbian people and pledged to fight to surrender with Russia's help. At the United Nations Security Council meeting in November, he made a suggestion that he would encourage Russia to veto the extension of the European peacekeeping deployment in Bosnia. Additionally, he received the support of the Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, which defined the verdict as an attempt to weaken the Serbian presence in the country.
This escalation risks undermining the power-sharing arrangements that were established to maintain a delicate balance among the country's three primary ethnic groups: Bosniaks, Croats, and Serbs. Furthermore, it threatens Bosnia’s progress and ambitions towards EU integration.
In response to these rising tensions, the geopolitical chessboard stresses the necessity for cooperation among regional partners, reinforcing the idea that the unity and an effective synergy of Bosnia and Herzegovina's institutions is a relevant burden for these checkers.
The Tangled Bosnian Government Structure
As a result of the historical events that have made it the protagonist, the governmental structure of Bosnia and Herzegovina has unique characteristics that reflect the demographic composition of the country.
The result of the 1995 Dayton Peace Accords, This complex constitutional framework - a product of the Dayton Peace Accords in 1995 - was designed to promote peace and political stability in a highly multi-ethnic society marked by continuous tensions. The Bosnian government is composed of the two main entities of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, with its capital Sarajevo inhabited mainly by Croats and Bosniak Muslims, and the Republika Srpska (RS), a Serb-majority area with its de facto capital Banja Luka. In addition, there is the district of Brcko, a special administrative unit whose territory belongs to both entities.
This structure is crystallized in the Constitution of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which corresponds to Annex 4 of the 1995 Dayton Framework Agreements and which outlines the roles and dynamics of power-sharing between the different entities, In order to reduce inter-ethnic tensions and ensure stability and compliance with the agreements, while preserving the distinct identities of the population.
Although it is a collective body, only one member rotating every 8 months is designated as the formal chair, with the highest-voted candidate starting the term. Currently the post is held by the Serbian representative Zelijka Cvijanović, together with the Croatian Željko Komšić and the Bosniak Denis Bećirović. Mirolad Dodik held this position from 2018 to 2022.
Dodik-Schmidt: Amid Ethnic Tensions
The conflict between Dodik and the central Bosnian authorities has intensified with the appointment of Christian Schmidt as the High Representative for Peace, whose legitimacy Dodik has never recognized. In 2023, the Assembly of Republika Srpska proposed laws to no longer recognize the decisions of the High Representative and the Constitutional Court. Despite the High Representative's request to block them, the Serb Assembly approved these contested laws, leading to legal proceedings against Dodik and Milos Lukic, the director of the Official Gazette of Republika Srpska, who was accused of deliberately failing to communicate the High Representative's decisions.
Dodik and Lukic have always regarded the trial as a political vendetta against them and the Serbs. The situation has seen an increase in ethnic tensions, highlighted by the local administrative elections on October 7, 2024, which strengthened the power of ethnic parties outside major urban centres: in particular, Dodik’s party, the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats, won in 80% of the municipalities in Republika Srpska.
The verdict, which is significant in its implications, is likely to lead to more tensions in the country. In the aftermath of the verdict, Dodik reiterated his rejection of the ruling and labelled it as destabilizing and harmful to the Serbian people. This perspective is echoed by Serbian President Vučić, who made an urgent visit to Banja Luka on February 26. After the meeting between Dodik and Vučić, the Republika Srpska government approved and presented several draft laws to the Assembly aimed at disregarding the verdict and further restricting the activities of the High Representative and national authorities, including the intelligence service.
Following this turmoil, the already fragile institutional balance of the country from the former Yugoslavia, teetering between the EU and Russia, could collapse. In the context of Eastern European countries that are returning or may return to the orbit of Russia, Bosnia is emerging as one of the key players.
The European Integration process: Advances and Challenges
Bosnia’s journey towards the European Union country started in 2003 when the country was identified as a potential candidate for EU membership and the European Commission provided an Opinion detailing key priorities for the country to address before accession negotiations could begin. Nevertheless, the country was granted candidate status, and the European Council has decided to open accession negotiations, contingent upon meeting specific compliance criteria.
To date, Bosnia and Herzegovina has been an official candidate for EU membership since 2022 but must implement significant reforms before negotiations can begin. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that Bosnia is demonstrating its ability to meet membership criteria and fulfill the aspirations of its citizens to join the EU. She expressed her intention to recommend that the Council open accession negotiations with the country. The EU was expected to present a report on Bosnia's progress ahead of an upcoming leaders' summit.
The decisions made and the laws adopted by the Republika Srpska have blocked Bosnia and Herzegovina's path towards full EU membership because they are incompatible with the European agenda, calling for support from the EU and NATO. In this rift, Dodik supporters organized protests in favor of a pro-Russian narrative and opposing the EU, whereas Dodik is portrayed as a victim of the globalist system.
Key Players & Stakeholders
Bosnia-Herzegovina: The year has seen rising political tensions stemming from the court ruling against Milorad Dodik, along with renewed separatist rhetoric and institutional stagnation fuelled by ethnonationalist agendas. At the same time, the country is grappling with structural economic issues, pervasive corruption, and societal concerns heightened by the 30th anniversary of the Dayton Peace Agreement.
EU: The EU announced that the EUFOR (European Union Force in Bosnia and Herzegovina) will temporarily increase its force size as a proactive measure to assist Bosnia and Herzegovina and ensure the safety and security of its citizens.
NATO: Following the Dayton Peace Agreement, a NATO force was initially deployed to ensure security in Bosnia. This was succeeded in 2004 by the EUFOR. However, NATO continues to play a supporting role and has the capability to return if the peace is threatened. The NATO secretary Mark Rutte emphasized NATO's commitment to Bosnia's territorial integrity and stability in the region.
USA: The USA has imposed sanctions on Milorad Dodik and associated firms in 2024; the sanctions target Dodik's network, which the U.S. accuses of undermining Bosnia and Herzegovina's stability and territorial integrity. The U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Dodik's actions are undermining the institutions of Bosnia and Herzegovina and threatening the country's security and stability, calling political leaders in Bosnia to engage in constructive dialogue.
Russia/Serbia: Serbia and Russia, traditional allies of Dodik, have expressed their full support for him. The Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, described the political process against the Serbian-Bosnian leader as "absurd," considering it "an insult to justice" and an attack on Republika Srpska "inspired from abroad." The Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic stated that the verdict against Milorad Dodik, leader of Republika Srpska, is not only a personal blow but also an attack on the Serb people.
Opportunities and Risks
Opportunities:
The turmoil allowed Bosnia Herzegovina to garner a major international attention; this could be a catalyst for the implementing of the EU-sponsored Pact to combat corruption, along with the EU’s Growth Plan to harmonize the economies of different entities and attract foreign direct investment in key sectors such as renewable energy and transport sectors.
The opportunity to join the EU would allow Bosnia and Herzegovina to benefit from continental cooperation that could both enable the harmonious development of the country and provide Europe with a crucial element in the Western Balkans in the fight against the Russian threat. For instance, the ambitious EU’s Growth Plan for the Western Balkans has been put at risk by the Bosnian Republic to adopt a credible reform agenda, which limits the European Union’s operation range.
Risks:
Ethnic tensions, never fully resolved, are increasingly intertwined with international dynamics. Dodik, a trusted ally of Putin, is seen by Moscow as a bulwark against the influence of the European Union and NATO in the Western Balkans, fuelling separatist initiatives. This impasse distances the bipartisan republic from a harmonious coexistence and development.
Although NATO membership is not a realistic option, the path toward EU accession remains central to Bosnian politics. However, this aspiration risks coming to a halt due to the ongoing institutional crisis.
The existence of four parallel judicial systems creates jurisdictional confusion, contributing to significant delays in legal proceedings and the country faces a consistent emigration and workforce decline. The population has decreased from 4.4 million in 1991 to an estimated 3.2 million in 2025, with 500,000 people emigrating since 2013.
Conclusion
The situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, underscored by Milorad Dodik's conviction and the escalating ethnic tensions, is emblematic of the broader geopolitical struggles that define the region. The fragile balance established by the Dayton Peace Agreement is increasingly threatened, as Dodik's actions reflect a resistance to both internal governance and external integration.
While Bosnia's aspirations towards European Union membership present significant opportunities for development and stability, they are threatened by the divisions and the influence of external actors, particularly the binomy of Serbia/Russia.
The increase of European troops confirms the growing attention of the EU towards the Balkan region, during a period marked by increasingly intense geopolitical competition. With Bosnia and Herzegovina being a candidate for EU membership since 2022, Brussels appears determined to maintain a strong presence in the country to prevent new tensions and ensure a stable integration pathway.
To ensure the regional stability, the recent developments force the geopolitical players to consider Bosnia Herzegovina a priority. Dodik has shown willingness to engage in dialogue with the central institutions; however, the actions taken by the authorities of the Republika Srpska, the support from neighboring Serbia, and the uncertainty regarding the position of the United States in the Western Balkans continue to keep tensions high. Thirty years after the Dayton Agreement, Bosnia appears increasingly vulnerable.