Popular Support after Gaza Ceasefire: The Future of Houthi Popular Legitimacy following Red Sea Naval Attacks
25/02/2025 - Written by Lucy Downing
Introduction
In November 2023, Houthi rebels began a campaign of naval attacks in the Red Sea, declaring its main target as Israeli commercial and naval vessels. The de-facto authority of North Yemen, otherwise known as Ansar Allah, stated its maritime operations were a response to Israel’s killing of Palestinians, following Hamas’s attack on Southern Israel on October 7th. Israel has faced condemnation for its treatment of civilians, being ordered by the International Court of Justice to allow humanitarian aid to Gaza, and to prevent genocide against Palestinians.
The Houthis’ naval warfare formed part of a wider operation, involving missile-striking Israel, and has caused significant disruption to international trade. Insecurity within vital trading corridors has increased freight rates and caused prolonged, costly detours for cargo vessels. Red Sea hostilities escalated to the seizing of British-owned ship, Galaxy Leader, whose multinational crew members were released from Houthi detainment last month.
These attacks began two years after the Biden Administration revoked Washington’s designation of the group as a terrorist entity. Biden’s decision was intended to ease the severity of Yemen’s humanitarian crisis. Upon Trump’s return to office this January, he re-designated the group as an FTO.
Since its inception in the 1990s, the Houthi group has positioned itself as a champion of the Palestinian struggle. Yemeni people have historically expressed support and solidarity with the Palestinians; after the war in Gaza broke-out, tens of thousands attended protests in Yemen’s capital, Sana’a, demanding the end of Israel’s aggression on Gaza. Thus, the Houthis’ retaliatory economic ‘sanctioning’ of Israel, has created a temporary boost of political legitimacy among its general unpopularity across Yemen. Just days before the war in Gaza escalated, Yemeni public employees were protesting against the economic injustices under Houthi rule. With this in mind, what enduring impact will the rebel group’s maritime warfare have on its future rule in Yemen?
Contextual Analysis
The 10 million children in Yemen who are in need of food and basic supplies, are a product of decades of civil war, corrupt governance, and geopolitical isolation. Such conditions have caused the largely-starving population to depend on international financial aid, through state donors and organisations like the World Food Programme.
A central theme of Yemen’s Civil War is public opposition to illegitimate governance and corruption. Despite representing a minority group with a traditional Zaydi background, the Shia group shared grievances with the uprising Yemeni public during the 2011 Arab Spring. Houthi members participated in protests against the centralisation of power under Ali Abdullah Saleh’s government.
A significant development in the Yemen conflict was in 2015, when Houthi rebels seized Yemen’s Capital, Sana’a, catalysing its expansion of de facto rule over North Yemen. Rather than alleviating economic hardship, the Houthi party has committed a number of human rights violations, including violently suppressing religious and political descent.
Main Arguments
Domestically, the implications of months of naval attacks, seizing of naval crews, and missile strikes in Israel, are varied. International scrutiny and isolation will exacerbate Yemen’s humanitarian crisis, which depends heavily on Western powers for aid and assistance. The rebel group’s re-designation on the US terror list comes with restrictions on trade and aid, further damaging the brittle Yemeni economy. The deepening of poverty and unemployment for Yemenis, particularly those in the Northern Houthi-ruled areas, may risk further straining the Houthis’ social contract with the population.
On the other hand, the internationally-recognised Yemeni government, the Presidential Leadership Council, has powerful international alliances (Saudi Arabia, UAE, US). Whilst the party is known for its weak governance and human rights abuses, they have the potential to provide beneficial strategic alliances for Yemen’s economic development, trade, reform and development initiatives.
According to the polls, Houthi’s military and naval action against Israel was regarded as positive overall by the Yemeni public, indicating the party’s transitory ideological alignment. Polls show a disparity between support for Houthi naval actions and overall perceptions of the group. This suggests that military actions which symbolise ideological alliance with the people, do not reflect the immediate needs and concerns of the population, under the Houthis’ repressive rule. Yemen’s enhanced poverty, paired with the Houthis’ record of imprisoning and torturing political descendents, may be leveraged by party rivals for information campaigns that further erode their popular legitimacy.
Key Players and Stakeholders
The Houthi group’s military capabilities and endurance rely on a strategic network of Shia alliances across the region, centred around Iran’s dominant influence. This network, commonly known as the Shia Crescent, has been weakened in recent months by several regional events; the network’s honorary Syrian member, Bashar al-Assad was ousted late last year, Israel assassinated much of Hezbollah’s senior leadership, and President Sudani has declared Iraq’s commitment to reversing poor relations with the US. Among damage to Iran’s axis, as well as popular unrest domestically, Tehran faces Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ this week, sanctioning oil exports to one of Tehran’s main oil importers, China. As Iran’s Foreign Minister has promised severe retaliation, Tehran may leverage insecurity in key US trade routes in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, by investing more funds and military capabilities to the Houthis.
Russia has adopted a balanced foreign policy towards Yemen, contributing to its strategic naval expansion in the Red Sea in recent years. Moscow has relations with both the Houthis and its opposition, the Southern Transitional Council (STC); Putin treads cautiously, avoiding a disruption of its pragmatic relations with Saudi Arabia, who has been a key force against the Shia Houthis in the Yemen conflict. Despite this, since the Houthis have driven insecurity in key Western-trading routes, Putin has been lightly arming the rebel group and has the potential to increase both economic and military support to them to obstruct NATO intervention in the Russia-Ukraine war.
Opportunities and Risks
Opportunities:
There is a possibility of the Houthis claiming a legacy as a key player in the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement, with the group declaring its attacks as ‘economic sanctions’ towards Israel. Amongst the perceived disappointment towards Arab states’ inaction amidst global human rights concerns in Gaza, the Houthis’ maritime action could enhance its domestic and regional credibility.
This legacy will be disputed by various actors, including the Trump and Biden administration, who highlight the success of their own diplomatic efforts as catalysing the deal.
Considering Yemen’s risk of economic isolation, if Iran’s revision of military strategies result in a detraction from the Houthis, the opportunity for the group to develop stronger trade and economic relations with Western states will arise, as modelled by Iraq. Although, the unlikeliness of eased hostilities in the Red Sea among a fragile ceasefire, and Trump’s unpopular plan for Gaza, make this alliance appear improbable in the near future.
Alternative trade relations may be coordinated with BRICs powers, leveraging Houthi Naval cooperation with China. Considering the disruption to crucial China-Egypt trade corridors in the Suez Canal Economic Zone, continuing Red Sea hostilities could create long-term damage to trade and financial relations with China.
Risks:
Primarily, Houthi Maritime warfare risks deterring international trade with Yemen. Due to various economic and geographical factors, Yemen relies heavily on imports of food, fuel and medicine. Red Sea insecurity has caused most vessels to avoid dangerous routes which lead to Yemeni ports, causing disruption to Yemen’s own supply chains, including with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. With the Houthis being relisted as an FTO, trade of many commodities, including food, medicine, and humanitarian aid, is seized to Houthi-controlled areas in the North.
US-led retaliations have killed Yemeni civilians, but were ineffective in deterring Houthi maritime hostility. US responses to the attacks may be tougher in the future, under Trump leadership, which has been demonstrated by his adoption of severe tariffs on USA’s key trading partners, and re-designating the Houthis as an FTO just days after returning to office.
Sanctions which are imposed on designated groups, further entrench economic isolation of the region in which it rules.
Israel’s airstrikes on Yemen in recent months have targeted civilian infrastructures, including power stations and the essential trade ports which the population rely on for food and humanitarian aid. The exacerbated burden of Yemeni suffering caused by Israel’s retaliation, may enhance resentment between the people and the Houthi group.
Since a three-phase ceasefire deal was agreed between Israel and Hamas in January, vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb strait near the Red Sea, increased by 4%; following the truce agreement, the Houthis announced they would concentrate their targeting of only Israeli-owned or Israeli-registered vessels. The group continues their blockade on the Red Sea, however, as a symbolic threat towards Israel to commit to the ceasefire deal. If their mission is to see a sustained ceasefire and safety for people in Gaza, will it end the blockade after an Israel-Hamas truce? The answer to this will determine the extent of the ideological contract between the group and the public’s concerns for Palestinians. Trump’s recent proposals to ‘own Gaza’ will undoubtedly raise tensions in the region, and will likely lead to an extension of the Houthi maritime campaign.
Policy considerations
Countries must take all necessary measures to ensure that trade sanctions on Ansar Allah do not impact the shipping and delivery of essential humanitarian supplies to Yemen.
All countries must uphold International Law when approaching Yemeni factions, ensuring the protection of civilians, and condemning any attacks which target civilian areas or ports which receive vital humanitarian aid.
The international community can support Qatar and Oman’s efforts to offer diplomatic solutions to the Yemen conflict. External diplomatic mediation can lead to the development of democratic legislative elections in Yemen, to uphold essential freedoms for the people of Yemen.
Conclusion
Upon a successful ceasefire in Gaza, the Houthis have the opportunity to cease its maritime warfare and continue peace talks with Saudi Arabia, bringing Yemen a step closer to experiencing peace of its own. A shared vision of Palestinian security is not enough to secure Houthi popularity in Yemen. Ideology must be aligned with the respect of human rights domestically, addressing the immediate needs of a starving and repressed population. Due to Yemen’s unfortunate agricultural capabilities, its future democratically-elected leaders must prioritise building relations with key economic and trade partners, and prioritise stabilising the economy to ease famine and severe poverty.