Romania and Moldova Take on the Threat of Foreign Influence from Russia
03 January 2025 - Written by Alexander Brotman
Introduction
Romania and Moldova both exist under different levels of European integration and security but face similar threats from Russia, which dominated Moldova as part of the Soviet Union and Romania as part of the Warsaw Pact. As a member of the EU since 2007, and NATO since 2004, Romania plays an increasingly important role on the alliance’s eastern flank guarding against threats from the Black Sea and spillover from the conflict in Ukraine. This stands in contrast to Moldova, which is Europe’s poorest country and a candidate for EU membership that remains particularly vulnerable to Russian aggression and interference, despite currently having a pro-EU president Maia Sandu. Moldova is heavily reliant on Russian gas and Russia maintains troops in the breakaway region of Transnistria, bordering Ukraine.
While NATO membership provides certain security guarantees for Romania that Moldova lacks, EU membership does not guarantee Romania electoral or democratic stability. In the recent election, Romania’s courts had to step in and annul the results after far-right candidate Calin Georgescu pulled off a surprise first-round win partly due to Russian influence efforts. For both Romania and Moldova, operating a strategic piece of real estate along the Black Sea, the EU provides countless benefits for their democratic and economic development, but no guarantee against their backsliding or the revanchist efforts of Russia that is keen to drive a wedge between EU member states. In 2024, both nations held firm in their defence of European values and their commitment to Euro-Atlantic stability and integration. However, many risks remain as the EU faces internal divisions and the status of any peace settlement in Ukraine will determine how bold Moscow’s actions will be in the future.
Divergent Histories
The divergence between Romania and Moldova can be traced back to 1812, when the Russian Empire annexed Moldova, separating it from the other Romanian-speaking provinces in the region and leading to the formation of a unique Moldovan identity. After the Russian Empire collapsed, most of Moldova returned to Romania, before it was then occupied by the Soviet Union and later became the Moldovan Soviet Socialist Republic which lasted until the end of the Soviet Union in 1991. Romania joined the Axis powers in World War II in 1941, was Soviet aligned as part of the Warsaw Pact, and was led until its independence by Nicolae Ceausescu, whose harsh oppression and cult of personality made Romania incredibly similar to North Korea.
In the 21st century, Romania plays an increasingly important role in the NATO alliance, soon to host one of its largest bases at the port of Constanta. In the EU, Romania has suffered from rule of law and corruption challenges that have prompted the ire of Brussels, though not to the extent of Hungary, which has actively opposed measures approved by all other EU member states. With Romania’s backing, Moldova became an official EU candidate country in 2022 and has maintained its unique identity while relying on close friends like Romania to tilt it ever further towards its neighbours in Europe. Romanian-Moldovan unification remains a possibility at some point, but for now, EU accession that works to eliminate border checks and foster even closer ties between the two nations is what both Bucharest and Chisinau are aiming for.
Moldova: Towards the EU
Moldova has only drawn closer to Romania as a result of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with Romania pledging to do ‘whatever it takes’ to support Moldova, including critically on energy security. Moldova has suffered regular blackouts, electricity shortages, and airspace violations and closures due to strikes in neighbouring Ukraine. On 3 October, Moldovans went to the polls to answer the question of whether their country should continue on the path towards EU membership, to which Russia responded with a combination of media influence operations, cyberattacks, and bribery. Incumbent, pro-EU President Maia Sandu won a very slim majority in the runoff election on 3 November against the Russian-supported candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo. According to international observers, the runoff election was ‘administered efficiently and professionally’, offering voters ‘a choice between genuine political alternatives’, despite unbalanced media coverage and foreign interference from Moscow.
Moscow has long-used the Russia-friendly oligarch Ilan Shor to advance its political agenda in Chisinau, including an alleged vote-buying scheme which transferred close to 40 million dollars from a Russian bank to the bank accounts of 138,000 Moldovans. Shor was sentenced to seven and a half years in prison in 2017 for his role in the theft of one billion dollars from Moldova’s banking system in 2014, the largest bank fraud in Moldova’s history. Shor then fled to Israel while under house arrest in 2019, when he was also elected to Moldova’s parliament despite his status as an exile. He now lives in Russia where he has Russian citizenship, in addition to Israeli citizenship. In Moldova, Shor’s prison sentence was doubled to 15 years in absentia in 2023 and all of his assets are frozen. Despite this, he remains a formidable opposition figure for Sandu.
With Sandu just sworn in for a second term, Moldova remains on a pro-EU path for now, but its institutions and infrastructure are vulnerable to Russian influence operations that can easily derail Moldova’s Euro-Atlantic trajectory. Acknowledging these vulnerabilities, the EU has allowed Moldova to increase its quota of electricity imports from the bloc should Moscow choose to cut off gas supplies to Transnistria. Moldova’s energy security will be paramount for its further economic development and integration towards Brussels and away from Moscow, something that EU member states like Slovakia and Austria are still struggling with over two years into Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. What likely grants Moldova more stability and room for optimism is its geography and increasing connectivity with the rest of the continent, despite it still being the least visited country in Europe. Having an EU and NATO member state with a shared culture and vision like Romania right next door is an additional bulwark and prominent voice that can argue for and help advance Moldova’s interests.
Romania: Election Annulled
In Romania, the surprise win of the far-right and pro-Russia candidate Georgescu in the first round election prompted Romanian intelligence to reveal a large-scale Russian media manipulation campaign using TikTok. This led Romania’s constitutional court to cancel the outcome of the first-round vote, an event unprecedented not only for Romania, but also for any EU and NATO member state. Romanian President Klaus Iohannis aptly described his country as suffering from ‘hybrid attacks which led to the annulment of presidential elections’, and a ‘situation in the European Union where states which were the engines of the Union [France and Germany] are facing domestic problems’, thus exacerbating the instability risks. For Russia, this presents a prime opportunity to help influence the outcome in Romania, further dividing the EU in the process and appealing to voters who feel democracy and the notion of European solidarity is too cumbersome and difficult to maintain.
In Romania, in a similar vein as many other EU member states, Russia has been able to leverage the collapse of traditional centre-right and centre-left parties and work on lifting the extreme voices on both ends of the political spectrum. These voices, like Georgescu in Romania, have made inroads over the war in Ukraine, inflation, and other cultural issues like immigration. Their support may be organic, but their influence is often energised from abroad. This can make it easy to point the finger at external actors like Russia without properly addressing the root causes at home, something that afflicts not just Romania, but many other EU member states, including France and Germany.
Opportunities and Risks
For now, both Romanian and Moldovan democracy looks to be holding, but significant risks remain. Outgoing President Klaus Iohannis is ‘optimistic’ that a pro-EU governing majority will succeed him, after a coalition of parties including the Social Democrats, centre-right Liberals, centrist Save Romania Union, and ethnic Hungarian UDMR all agreed to work together to prevent the far-right from gaining power. This fragile arrangement is similar to what has happened in Germany in multiple parties’ responses to the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany party in different German states and it bodes well for European democracy. Likewise, a pro-EU coalition in Romania is good news for Moldova as its Euro-Atlantic trajectory deepens, paving the way for further cooperation and coordination.
Neighbouring Moldova is much more fragile than Romania with a narrower majority in favour of EU membership and a deeply divided electorate that remains ripe for exploitation by Russia, in addition to the continued presence of Russian troops in Transnistria. Success in Moldova will depend as much on institutional reforms for EU membership as on geopolitical outcomes in Ukraine. Moldova’s greatest strength and also its greatest risk is its geography, as it borders an allied EU member state in Romania, but also a country at war and following its own delicate accession path in Ukraine. For Chisinau, there is the risk of external actors, including both Moscow and Brussels, linking Moldova to Ukraine and not viewing the nation on its own merits. Moldova risks being forgotten by Brussels if events further escalate in Ukraine or if a peace settlement freezes the conflict there, potentially paving the way for the resumption of hostilities at a later date. This is where Romania, along with the EU’s newer frontline member states like the Baltic states and Poland, can play a vital role in advancing Moldova’s agenda and reminding the EU of the important post-Soviet fights for freedom still taking place within Europe’s borders. Estonia’s Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, is also a critical voice who knows the importance of standing up to Russia and safeguarding European values and interests.
Policy Considerations
EU enlargement has been a thorny issue for decades now, as candidate countries’ accession talks have stalled due to internal political disagreements, but also individual member states blocking enlargement to instead focus on reforming the bloc as it currently is. Just as enlargement is a complicated and politically fraught process, democratic backsliding amongst EU member states is a real problem too, as witnessed in Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Czechia in the last decade. Furthermore, EU membership is not a guarantee against corruption and illiberal governance, something that still afflicts Romania and Bulgaria, but is most acute in Hungary, a flawed democracy bordering on a hybrid regime in the heart of Europe. It is important for those nations seeking membership that they make as much progress as possible to strengthen their institutions prior to accession, a process formally known as meeting the EU’s Copenhagen Criteria. Just as in Ukraine, wartime or near war-time conditions can accelerate these trends for Moldova as every aspect of the state and its citizens’ relation to the state is tested.
Romania has simultaneously revealed how vulnerable it is to outside interference but also how swiftly its institutions responded to that vulnerability. The judiciary, intelligence services, and executive all worked together to respond to an incredibly volatile, high-profile sequence of events that placed Romania directly under the spotlight. What happened in Romania could easily happen in France, Germany, the UK, the US, or any other democracy dealing with hyper-polarisation and a divided electorate. Despite their different levels of Euro-Atlantic integration, Romania, Moldova, and Ukraine have tremendous insights to offer both the EU and NATO on facing hybrid threats and conventional conflict with Russia, as well as reforming institutions to enhance transparency and accountability. Moldova’s path towards EU membership is likely to take longer than Romania’s did and be more closely linked to Ukraine and Georgia’s, as they are unfortunately still collectively seen as a ‘post-Soviet’ cohort despite each state proudly resting on its own merits. Moldova has proven to be very adept at responding to an incredibly complex mix of threats in recent years, and the EU will have its commitment to Moldova and adherence to its own principles tested in the coming decade.