Written By Tarik Ata

Stabilising the Sahel: A development of anti-Western forces?

03/02/2025 - Written by Elle McCallum

Introduction

Stretching across Central-North Africa the Sahel is a region of prolonged emergency, experiencing a surge in instability over the past decade. Economic and environmental hardships stemming from climate change plagued the region with humanitarian crises and political instability, thus catalysing radicalisation and recruitment efforts by violent extremist and militant factions. Terror groups have sustained strongholds throughout the Sahel,  promising stability and support to vulnerable inhabitants.

Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger all fall within the top 10 states most affected by terrorism according to the 2024 Global Terrorism Index. Matters are further complicated as foreign intervention has been poorly received, with the prevalence of military instability throughout the “coup belt” posing challenges to the effective implementation of international aid. This partly stems from the region's colonial past, manifesting in the present-day rebuffing of Western interference. 


In light of local demands, the withdrawal of foreign military support on behalf of France and the US has accordingly signalled an alteration in Western influence and policy addressing the region. As a result, foreign influence within the Sahel is shifting, as new actors and extremist groups, particularly Russia and terror group Lakurawa, with questionable motives seize the opportunity left by the West’s exit. Stabilising the Sahel (and more broadly Africa) expands beyond quelling the internal military coups and extremist groups, and requires acknowledging the region’s use as a multipolar theatre and microcosm of the broader state of the international system.

A Western vacuum 

2024 saw the pullout of Western interference within the Sahel, particularly of French forces, curtailing their sphere of influence. Weak attempts to rekindle Franco-Sahelian relations and settle the region with military efforts fell short, with governments in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger remaining steadfast in their anti-neocolonial sentiments. Such pressure contributed to the withdrawal of US forces from Niger in mid-September 2024. 

The intersection of politics, history and present conflict within the Sahel complicates its navigation and stabilisation, adding cultural connotations to accepting Western support. Sahelian governments have questioned the intentions of Western states and the alignment of both parties' interests. As a result, bilateral relations have taken a more transactional and strategic character that prioritises Sahelian national interest. For instance, the Niger military authorities claimed that American influence denied “the sovereign Nigerien people the right to choose their partners and types of partnerships capable of truly helping them fight against terrorism”. 

Such developments reflect broader attitudes prioritising “win-win” agreements in the eyes of local military governments in place of partnerships with Western powers. 2023 saw the termination of the Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) and the withdrawal of peacekeeping forces in the Sahel at the request of local transitional authorities who rose to power in the 2021 coup.

 The disengagement of Western and multilateral influence, although aligning with the sociopolitical wishes of local governments, places Sahelian states in a precarious position as strategic opportunities open for new actors. New violent extremist groups are seizing the power vacuum left in the wake of the West’s exit and reduction in intervention. 

Lakurawa’s rise 

The ongoing disorder within the Sahel has set a dangerous precedent for new actors to arise and capitalise on the region’s inherent disorder and disruption. Lakurawa serves as a prime example, declared a terrorist organisation by the Nigerian court earlier this month. The group once operated under the pretence of peace and defending local communities, now adheres to radical Islamist ideology and seeks to establish a caliphate in its region of operation - the porous borders of Nigeria. Criminal and extremist activity has thrived within the Sahel through the lack of effective governance and the epidemic of military coups. Such conditions cause communities to seek alternative measures of enforcement and security, initially provided by terror groups, prior to growing more radical. 


Lakurawa exemplifies a region-wide struggle with Islamist terrorism within the Sahel as a deprived and destabilised environment. Radicalisation and recruitment efforts have thrived through the lack of effective countermeasures. For instance, Nigerian security forces initiated air and ground assaults on the group in November 2024, following attacks on residents, when initiatives tailored towards empowering local communities and fortifying state policing would more effectively curtail terrorist activity. Lakurawa’s rise illustrates the challenges of quelling the region’s hydra-headed instability. The prevalence of ideologically similar but distinctly operating terror groups with vain counter-measures fails to target the systemic roots of the Sahel’s disorder, setting a precedent for the rise of new actors that further entrenches disorder.

Rooting Russian influence 

Considering the reduction in military intervention following the West’s exit, new geopolitical and diplomatic ties are required to provide the resources needed to settle the Sahel. As a geopolitical adversary of the West, Russia is leveraging such instability and the absence of Western interference to establish military strongholds throughout Africa, reminiscent of the USSR’s presence throughout the Cold War. 

Russia is undertaking increased military installations in Libya, actively transitioning away from its past efforts in Syria following the collapse of the Assad regime. However, the reinforcement of Russian bases has launched resistance from the UN-backed Libyan government. PM Abdul Hamid Dabaiba expressed concerns about “moving international conflicts to Libya, and that it will become a battlefield between countries”.

 Increased Russian interference may exacerbate Libya’s pre-existing civil unrest. Interestingly, resistance against Russian influence within Libya poses a stark contrast to Sahelian perceptions of the state’s initiatives, with Mali and Burkina Faso expressing strong pro-Russia sentiments that further isolate them from their past Western relations. 

More holistically speaking, the execution of Russian strategic policy may cause further destabilisation within the Sahel, seeking a geopolitical stronghold within the resource-rich continent. The effectiveness of Russian interference entailing mercenary deployments, armaments, diplomatic support, and information operations is questionable. Doubts have arisen on the efficacy of such initiatives intending to supposedly liberate and stabilise Africa as the situation within the Sahel continues to deteriorate. Mali was struck with a terror attack in September 2024, where al-Qaeda-linked Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) claimed the lives of 77 in the capital Bamako. 

Although the pretence of Russian intervention appears hopeful, partnerships involving the state rarely produce equal results for their counterpart. This ironically contradicts the Sahelian states’ desire for equality in geopolitical relations, previously motivating their detachment from Western powers. Providing intervention that neglects the humanitarian and systematic sides of the Sahel’s instability and instead bestows hollow economic commitments and inflammatory armaments arguably worsens the situation in the Sahel considering the prevalence of corruption and military disorder. Such actions lionise Russia through its past ties to the region and stance against the West, regardless of the effectiveness of its influence. The intentions of Russia beyond eroding Western influence in Africa and expanding its sphere of influence remain unclear, thus diminishing the likelihood of long-term progress and stabilisation in the Sahel.

Key Players & Stakeholders

  • Libya

    • Possesses a wealth of oil and gold but still battles political instability following the state’s collapse in 2011. Undergoing recent sustained Russian influence with the goal of transformation into a hub for African policy implementation.

  • Lakurawa

    • The newest Sahelian terror group, primarily operating in Northern Nigeria and on the Niger-Nigeria border, with ties to regional jihadist factions. Seized influence through leveraging strained political relations and instability. 

  • France

  • Russia

    • Undertaking a massive military investment in the Sahel to make strategic inroads across Africa and leverage the region’s instability. State-funded mercenaries within the Russian Africa Corps seek to “make Africa freer” whilst tactically disrupting Western resource access through transnational relations. 

Opportunities and Risks

  • A chance for the diversification of diplomatic and geopolitical ties in the Sahel. 

    • The exit of Western influence within the region has opened opportunities for other actors to invest and form ties with Sahelian states and establish themselves within Africa. Considering its youthful population and abundance of natural resources, the continent as a whole provides an opportunity for investment and growth if directed appropriately. 

  • The withdrawal of the West may encourage other traditionally Western-opposing powers to engage and expand their influence within the Sahel. 

  • A possible IS resurgence?

    • The power vacuum within the Sahel has provided exploitative opportunities for regional terror groups, paired with Russia’s ineffective counterinsurgency strategies. Primarily exacerbating the existing instability within the Sahel, the current environment holds troubling consequences for the broader international system as sub-factions of past terror groups gain influence. The Islamic State–Sahel Province sub-faction has expanded since the exit of Western powers, further highlighting the need to stabilise the Sahel to contain such threats. Previously dominating terror organisations may be presented with a second chance for global influence if such instability persists. 

  • Emboldening Russia.

    • Partnerships with Sahelian states have allowed Russia to amass wealth and resources pivotal in prolonging and achieving a desirable outcome in the Russo-Ukrainian War. Such alliances soften the impact of economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the West and hold consequences for the stability of the broader international system. 

Policy Considerations 

  • Sahelian solidarity.

    • Although challenging, more unity is required between the Sahelian states to control the rise of terror groups/militant groups. The G5 Sahel requires reinforcement and effective cooperation to effectively stabilise the region. 

  • The need for a more humanitarian tone.

    • Aid and intervention must take a more humanitarian tone than a purely military one. Addressing the issues of Sahelian economic, food, and energy security from a bottom-up and systematic perspective is pivotal to achieving stability rather than focusing on economic and military interventions. 

  • Acknowledging the impacts of colonialism.

    • Western intervention could be reintroduced if it is done in a manner compatible with the sovereignty of Sahelian states and that condones and distinguishes itself from such states’ past colonial ties with the region.

Conclusion

Stabilising the Sahel has proven to be a thankless task over recent years, with subsidence of conflict and disorder still appearing unlikely. The ousting of Western interference, viewed as a neo-colonial infringement on Sahelian governments’ sovereignty has hindered efforts to fortify the region. As a consequence, both state and extremist actors have seized the remaining void for operational expansion. Perhaps operating with more legitimacy, the Russian foothold established within Africa will facilitate inroads into the Sahel and ultimately capitalise upon its lack of control and corruption, undermining the rectification of the region’s precarity.  The Sahel is undergoing a strategic and geopolitical metamorphosis, complicating the de-escalation of its internal instability. The legacy of historical injustices and ties has come to interact with modern issues of conflict and climate, reflected in present-day attitudes towards both Western powers and Russia.

The future of strategic operations across the Sahel to usher stability appears uncertain. For one, forcing Russia out of the Sahel through multilateral sanctions and pressure is unviable as it may only add further fuel to the region’s burning anti-Western sentiment. International humanitarian intervention is caught in gridlock, with intervention juxtaposing local wishes for sovereignty. Multilateral organisations traditionally undertaking humanitarian missions to settle disorder are no longer welcome, perceived as neo-colonialists operating under the guise of ineffective aid. Orchestrating effective aid and systemic change proves a logistical and geopolitical nightmare.

Russo-Sahelian ties certainly hold destabilising implications for the region itself, such relations may elicit repercussions for the broader international system. Tensions between Russia and Western states may grow exacerbated through the expansion of Russian influence across Africa, acquiring resources and allies to leverage for its national interest, particularly in the Russo-Ukrainian War. August 2024 saw the governments of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso calling for the UNSC to impose sanctions against Ukraine, claiming that Ukraine provided intelligence and armaments to terrorist forces in Mali in light of losses by the state’s army and Wagner Group. Niger cut diplomatic ties with Ukraine following such losses. Such statements align with Russia’s broader agenda and interests relevant, potentially emboldening its geopolitical strategy through polarising alliances. The involvement of Russia as a strongly influential actor implicates the international system and additional conflicts and tensions extending beyond the Sahel and its crisis of stability. 

Tarik Ata
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