The Qosh Tepa Canal: Implications for Water Security and Regional Cooperation in Central Asia
10/03/2025 - Written by Michal Bilinski
Introduction
In Central Asia, water security remains a critical issue, necessitating attention and effective policy making. Transboundary water resources are essential for economic stability and agricultural sustainability, especially in Central Asia, as 90% of available surface water is reserved for internal agricultural development rather than imports. With close proximity to the Middle East and Central Asia, Afghanistan seeks to position itself as a key player in regional water security through the development of the Qosh Tepa Canal. This irrigation project was initiated by the recently established Taliban regime, poised to significantly alter regional water dynamics across both Central Asia and the Middle East.
This ambitious project aims to enhance agricultural productivity and economic independence by diverting water from the Amu Darya River. Current access to clean water is limited due to poor infrastructure, with only 30% of the population having access to such a resource. The ongoing construction of the canal represents a crucial step in Afghanistan's broader vision for self-sufficiency and positioning across the region as a newly formed Islamic regime. As the river flows through Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan, the development of it will impact all users, with the downstream actors in the form of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan being affected most, which raises questions regarding the viability of Afghanistan's plans in the region.
Qosh Tepa Canal signifies Afghanistan's assertiveness over its water resources, an issue that has long been a point of contention on the border between the Middle East and Central Asia. Whilst the project is projected to have the potential to bolster domestic agricultural growth, it simultaneously threatens the stability of regional water distribution, which has historically relied on transboundary agreements.
Contextual Analysis
To consider the issue in full, one needs to understand the project itself. The Qosh Tepa Canal is a 285-kilometer-long irrigation project aimed at diverting water from Amu Darya to support agricultural development in northern Afghanistan as it embarks on becoming more self-sustainable in regards to its agriculture. After the fall of Kabul and the subsequent Taliban takeover, the government decided that one of its first edicts would be to restore infrastructural integrity of the war-torn country by providing essential resource security. Water scarcity has been an issue for the tribal organisations across Afghanistan, thus the canal was designed and is to be constructed to irrigate up to 550,000 hectares of arable farmland, enhancing Afghanistan’s food security which would empower it to become more economically self-sufficient as an emerging nation.
Nevertheless, as Afghanistan seeks to establish water security and further agricultural development, it endangers others. This project raised concerns among downstream nations with Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan being wary of their support for the Taliban’s expansion and manipulation of river flows. As both heavily rely on the Amu Darya for their own agricultural and economic needs, this poses an impasse where a solution must be reached by both parties.
Central Asia is one of the most water-stressed regions in the world. The Amu Darya River, originating in the mountains of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, is crucial for sustaining agriculture in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. For example, transboundary water resources in the form of Amu Darya and its freshwater supply is 77% of the total water intake of Uzbekistan. The Qosh Tepa Canal could lead to reduced river flow, jeopardising their food production and economic stability.
Furthermore, the effects of inefficient water management under the Soviet Union, rapid effects of climate change and increased extraction for irrigation have significantly reduced water availability for the region as a whole. Previous irrigation projects, such as the Soviet-era Karakum Canal in Turkmenistan, have already contributed to severe water depletion, notably exacerbating the Aral Sea crisis. Similar consequences could arise from Afghanistan’s unilateral water diversion. Increased diversion by Afghanistan could accelerate water scarcity for all states. Although the construction of the Qosh Tepa Canal might benefit the citizens of one country, it adds another layer of complexity to a fragile hydropolitical landscape and might have dire consequences for downstream nations.
With the Taliban government being established quite recently, the countries that rely on this river lack a formal water-sharing framework. The canal is a mere sign of the challenge of achieving sustainable cooperation in a region where water scarcity is already a pressing issue amongst nations that have their own challenges in their domestic situations, with Afghanistan being yet to be legitimised by the Central Asian players. Previous Central Asian water disputes were managed within the Soviet framework up to the invasion of Afghanistan by the Soviet Union.
Since this period, Afghanistan has historically been excluded from regional water governance structures, resulting in a situation in which, the Central Asian actors will have to negotiate and monitor the construction of the canal to not jeopardise their own water security. This is in light of Afghanistan’s lack of modern irrigation infrastructure due to the years of war against the Taliban perpetuated by the United States and its western allies, raising concerns about water wastage and inefficiencies in the Qosh Tepa Canal’s operation. Given the increasing risks posed by climate change and fluctuating water availability, Afghanistan's water policies may be perceived as both a strategic move to secure national interests and a catalyst for regional tensions.
Key Players and Stakeholders
Afghanistan (Taliban Government): The Taliban perceive the canal as a strategic asset for economic development, water and food security. Its isolationist stance in regard to regional politics make its development of the Qosh Tepa Canal is self-rewarding and will agitate its neighbours, likely causing them to perceive the country negatively. With 80% of its second phase completed, the canal is on the last stretch of the development phase.
Uzbekistan: As the largest agricultural producer in the region, Uzbekistan’s agricultural wellness depends upon Amu Darya water. The Uzbek government has for now remained cautious and expressed diplomatic concerns, yet has not proposed a direct response strategy. Whether Uzbekistan will attempt to utilise its ties to larger geopolitical partners such as Kazakhstan for economical and political leverage against the Taliban remains to be seen.
Turkmenistan: Turkmenistan, similarly to Uzbekistan, relies on Amu Darya for irrigation, especially in the Karakum Desert. Due to potential geopolitical considerations as to not strain its relations with a regime yet to be fully institutionalised, Turkmenistan has not expressed an official stance on the construction of the Qosh Tepa canal.
International Organisations: As the construction continues and more urgency will be required to address water security for all actors involved, the United Nations could play a mediating role in water-sharing negotiations and act as a catalyst for productive oversight over the construction of the canal in a sustainable manner. However, that remains to be seen as Afghanistan’s government is currently not recognised by the majority of UN countries, despite many having diplomatic relationships with the Taliban regime.
External States: China and Russia may have indirect influence due to economic and security interests in Central Asia. This is particularly relevant in China’s case, as it sought to establish an immediate base of contact with Afghanistan's new regime to further increase its stake in Central Asian politics.
Opportunities and Risks
Opportunities:
The Qosh Tepa Canal could serve as a catalyst for new transboundary water agreements, promoting dialogue between Afghanistan and Central Asian states. This could lead to interstate collaboration and legitimisation of the Taliban regime by the regional actors, showcasing a way for the state to be recognised as an active participant in the global economic and diplomatic arena.
The water security crisis presents a pragmatic opportunity for regional states to invest in drip irrigation, desalination, and water recycling to reduce overall water demand. The Qosh Tepa Canal will most likely provide this as an opportunity for Afghani civil society to gain access to more clean water and food infrastructure.
Potential involvement of international organisations such as the UN could help broker a fair water-sharing agreement across all countries along the Amu Darya, further leading to the achievement of sustainable development goals which the organisation promotes.
Risks
The Qosh Tepa canal might present a further depletion of the Amu Darya, which could result in desertification as was seen previously in the Aral Sea where the Soviet government enacted similar artificial structures to temporarily boost crop production. Furthermore, lower crop yields and economic instability in downstream nations as a cause of the development could lead to further crises due to water security.
The lack of formal agreements and Afghanistan’s unilateral and state-centric approach to the matter without the consultation of its neighbours increases the risk of diplomatic or economic retaliations from affected states, especially as 20% of the flow might be diverted to favour Afghanistan. Potential conflict of interests, and sanctions may be exchanged between the states involved, requiring the intervention of external states.
Poorly managed water resources, lack of specialised infrastructure and equipment could lead to the potential failure of the canal project which might have adverse effects on both its neighbours and civil society. This is something which certain sources are reporting occurring currently with leaks, and potential full failure could have devastating consequences. Such failure could lead to internal displacement and socio-political unrest within Afghanistan, whose government is already in a precarious position as a theological autocratic regime.
Policy Recommendations
Negotiations for a multilateral water-sharing agreement, with a legal framework for equitable water distribution across all states utilising Amu Darya might allow for stronger water security across the region. Perhaps by utilising existing water security institutions, such as the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS) might allow for an in-depth dialogue.
Joint investments in efficient irrigation systems and water conservation technologies should be sought after by Afghanistan in relation to the construction of the Qosh Tepa Canal. As the project is supposed to be 285 km long, it will require up-to-date technology for long-term sustainability as well as water-saving, as waste should be minimised with the majority of the states in the region being in an arid climate.
Afghanistan should seek to avoid political isolationism and gain recognition as a state seeking to improve the lives of its citizens, regardless of the political affiliations of its government. It should aim at engaging the United Nations and regional organisations to facilitate negotiations with its downstream neighbours. Regardless of the considerations of both Western and Eastern politicians against the Taliban government, their current position within Afghanistan and their projects require oversight from more developed countries to ensure an environmental catastrophe is avoided.
Conclusion
The Qosh Tepa Canal is a transformative project with far-reaching consequences for Afghanistan and its neighbours. Whilst it promises economic benefits for Afghanistan’s self-sustainability and plethora of opportunities for the young workforce, its potential to disrupt regional water security poses serious geopolitical and environmental challenges.
Without a structured water-sharing agreement and regional cooperation, the project risks exacerbating tensions in an already fragile region. Diplomatic engagement and technological innovation with the support of international milieu are essential to ensuring that this development benefits all stakeholders whilst maintaining regional stability.